Iran Crisis Update, November 6 | Institute for the Study of War

Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 6, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism on November 6 as part of an information operation to delegitimize protesters and their grievances. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the US and Israel of stoking the protests to create a new ISIS in Iran.[1] A group of 227 parliamentarians signed a letter similarly blaming the US for the unrest and comparing protesters to ISIS militants, calling for harsh and rapid prosecutions.[2] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Telegram channels previously characterized protesters as ”domestic ISIS” on November 3, as CTP previously reported.[3]

The regime will likely use this framing of protesters as terrorists to justify brutal crackdowns and harsh judicial sentences in the days and weeks ahead.[4]

Iranian state media has claimed that the regime has arrested terrorists trying to support the protests throughout the country, including reporting that security forces arrested “terrorist teams” in Esfahan, Fars, Kermanshah, and Khuzestan provinces on November 6.[5] Iranian state media claimed that these groups sought to organize and stoke protests and assassinate prominent Arab leaders in Khuzestan Province.[6] Law Enforcement Deputy Commander Ghassem Rezaei claimed on November 5 that the regime has arrested dozens of individuals tied to the Shiraz attack.[7] Rezaei stated that these individuals planned large-scale sabotage and suicide operations in Iran. CTP cannot verify whether the regime arrested anyone in these reported incidents.

A security officer killed four Law Enforcement Command (LEC) members at an LEC station in Bampour, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on November 6.[8] Iranian state media framed the incident as a “personal dispute” between the officers. The brutality and intensity of the protest crackdown may be stoking tensions between security personnel, especially as they face bandwidth constraints, exhaustion, and low morale in the eighth consecutive week of protests.[9]  Anti-regime militancy has increased in the areas surrounding Bampour in recent days, as CTP previously reported.[10] CTP has not yet observed large-scale defections or division among the state security services.

Key Takeaways

• The regime continued linking the ongoing protests with terrorism as part of an information operation to delegitimize protesters and their grievances.
• A security officer killed four LEC members at an LEC station in Bampour, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
• At least 17 protests took place in 10 cities across eight provinces on November 6.
• An unverified social media account alleged the presence of an Afghan proxy force member  during a protest crackdown in Arak, Markazi Province.
• Security forces seized weapons shipments in northwestern and southeastern Iran.
• At least two unidentified gunmen attacked an IRGC facility in Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province.

Anti-Regime Protests

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